TWO SUPERPOWERS, ONE ANXIOUS NATION: AUSTRALIANS GROW WEARY OF BOTH US AND CHINA IN HISTORIC SURVEY SHIFT
News aggregator based on LOWY INSTITUTE information and Gemini AI formatting
Posted 24 June.2026
SYDNEY — Australians are facing an increasingly deep sense of strategic insecurity, expressing historic levels of distrust toward the United States alongside deeply entrenched, long-standing suspicions about China’s military ambitions.
Lowy Institute Poll
The annual Lowy Institute Poll, a comprehensive 22-year benchmark of Australian public opinion on foreign policy, reveals a nation increasingly wary of the world’s two dominant superpowers. Driven by geopolitical volatility and leadership changes, the gap in public trust between Washington and Beijing has compressed to the narrowest margin in the survey’s history.
The Great Compression: A Historic Dip in US Trust
Trust in the United States to act responsibly in world affairs has collapsed to an all-time low of 31%. This represents a dramatic 25-point plummet from 2024, driven heavily by deep public discomfort with current American foreign policy and military engagements.
Lowy Institute
[The Superpower Trust Gap Over Time]
2022: [ US Trust: 65% ] ────────────────────────────── (53-point gap) ─────────> [ China Trust: 12% ]
2026: [ US Trust: 31% ] ── (3-point gap) ──> [ China Trust: 28% ]
A driving factor behind this shift is a profound lack of confidence in the U.S. presidency. Only 21% of Australians express confidence in Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs, marking the lowest confidence rating for any American leader in the history of the poll. Fully six in ten Australians state they have “no confidence at all” in the U.S. President.
Lowy Institute
For the first time since the tracking began, a slim majority of 51% of Australians now view the nation’s relationship with China as more important than its partnership with the United States—an eight-point surge from last year. While 73% still view the ANZUS alliance as vital to Australia’s security, that number has dropped ten points over the last two years, marking the sharpest sustained decline ever recorded.
Lingering Suspicions and the China Contradiction
While frustration with Washington has risen, Australians remain highly skeptical and suspicious of Beijing’s long-term intentions in the Indo-Pacific.
Lowy Institute
Trust in China to act responsibly sits at a meager 28%. While this is an eight-point recovery from historic lows, Chinese President Xi Jinping inspires nearly identical levels of public distrust as his American counterpart, capturing just 20% of public confidence.
Lowy Institute
Key Dilemmas: Economic Partner vs. Military Threat
| Issue / Metric | Public Sentiment (%) | Strategic Context |
| China as an Economic Partner | 61% | A significant portion of the population continues to view Beijing primarily as an essential trading block rather than an inherent threat. |
| China as a Future Military Threat | 62% | Nearly two-thirds of respondents believe it is likely China will pose a direct military threat to Australia within the next 20 years. |
| Stabilizing Superpower Relations | 64% | A large majority believe Washington should prioritize stabilizing ties with Beijing over actively challenging its global role. |
| Defending Taiwan | 60% | Despite general anti-war sentiment, a majority still support deploying the Royal Australian Navy alongside the US to counter a potential blockade of Taiwan. |
Defensive Resilience and Internal Anxiety
Faced with an increasingly unstable international environment, a record number of Australians reported feeling “unsafe” or “very unsafe” in the world. This underlying anxiety has pushed public opinion toward robust independent defense measures and a desire for containment.
Support for the AUKUS security pact—the trilateral defense arrangement under which Australia will acquire nuclear-powered conventional submarines from the US and UK—remains remarkably firm at 68%. Furthermore, reflecting a growing desire for strategic self-reliance, 39% of Australians now favor the nation acquiring its own nuclear weapons in the future, up three points from previous poll cycles.
Ultimately, the findings paint a picture of an increasingly isolated electorate looking out at a changing global landscape. As the traditional rules-based international order gives way to nationalistic competition, Australians are viewing both of their primary partners with an unprecedented degree of caution.
